Cover
Copyright
Dedication
Preface
1. References
About the Authors
1. Edward L. Anderson
Introduction
1. What is reliability?
2. Who gains from improved reliability?
Chapter 1: Analysis of Current Practices in Reliability Prediction
1. 1.1 Overview of Current Situation in Methodological Aspects of Reliability Prediction
2. 1.2 Current Situation in Practical Reliability Prediction
3. 1.3 From History of Reliability Prediction Development
4. 1.4 Why Reliability Prediction is Not Effectively Utilized in Industry
5. References
6. Exercises
Chapter 2: Successful Reliability Prediction for Industry
1. 2.1 Introduction
2. 2.2 Step‐by‐Step Solution for Practical Successful Reliability Prediction
3. 2.3 Successful Reliability Prediction Strategy
4. 2.4 The Role of Accurate Definitions in Successful Reliability Prediction: Basic Definitions
5. 2.5 Successful Reliability Prediction Methodology
6. References
7. Exercises
Chapter 3: Testing as a Source of Initial Information for Successful Practical Reliability Prediction
1. 3.1 How the Testing Strategy Impacts the Level of Reliability Prediction
2. 3.2 The Role of Field Influences on Accurate Simulation
3. 3.3 Basic Concepts of Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology
4. 3.4 Why Separate Simulation of Input Influences is not Effective in Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing
5. References
6. Exercises
Chapter 4: Implementation of Successful Reliability Testing and Prediction
1. 4.1 Direct Implementation: Financial Results
2. 4.2 Standardization as a Factor in the Implementation of Reliability Testing and Prediction
3. 4.3 Implementing Reliability Testing and Prediction through Presentations, Publications, Networking as Chat with the Experts, Boards, Seminars, Workshops/Symposiums Over the World
4. 4.4 Implementation of Reliability Prediction and Testing through Citations and Book Reviews of Lev Klyatis's Work Around the World
5. 4.5 Why Successful Product Prediction Reliability has not been Widely Embraced by Industry
6. References
7. Exercises
Chapter 5: Reliability and Maintainability Issues with Low‐Volume, Custom, and Special‐Purpose Vehicles and Equipment
1. 5.1 Introduction
2. 5.2 Characteristics of Low‐Volume, Custom, and Special‐Purpose Vehicles and Equipment
3. References
4. Exercises
Chapter 6: Exemplary Models of Programs and Illustrations for Professional Learning in Reliability Prediction and Accelerated Reliability Testing
1. 6.1 Examples of the Program
2. 6.2 Illustrations for these and Other Programs in Reliability Prediction and Testing
Index
End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 02
1. Table 2.1 The results of short field testing of prototypes of self‐propelled spraying machines.
2. Table 2.2 Testing results of prototypes of the studied machines.
3. Table 2.3 Normalized coefficients corresponding with the most important manufacturing and field factors.
4. Table 2.4 Unknown parameters α_i and α_ij .
5. Table 2.5 Coefficient of recalculating for the machines studied.
6. Table 2.6 Predicted mean time to failure.
Chapter 04
1. Table 4.1 Comparison of the complaints for a reason [1].
2. Table 4.2 Example of practical economic results of the proposed approach for tools [1] by one company.

List of Illustrations

Chapter 01
1. Figure 1.1 Reliability as one from interacted performance components in the real world.
2. Figure 1.2 Common scheme of company's vice‐president's sectors of responsibility. 1: one vice‐president's area; 2: second vice‐president's area; 3: third vice‐president's area; 4: fourth vice‐president's area; 3a: area of responsibilities of director of first department; 3b: area of responsibilities of director of second department; 3c: area of responsibilities of director of third department.
3. Figure 1.3 The reasons why accelerated stress testing cannot provide information for successful reliability prediction.
Chapter 02
1. Figure 2.1 Depiction of the step‐by‐step solution for practical successful reliability prediction.
2. Figure 2.2 Common scheme of successful reliability prediction strategy.
3. Figure 2.3 Five common steps for successful reliability prediction.
4. Figure 2.4 Interacted groups of real world conditions for the product/process.
5. Figure 2.5 Common scheme of methodology for product's reliability successful prediction.
6. Figure 2.6 Evaluation of the correspondence between functions of distribution of the time to failure of a car trailer's transmission details in the field and in the ART/ADT conditions.
Chapter 03
1. Figure 3.1 Scheme of the two basic aspects of testing.
2. Figure 3.2 Scheme of the four basic approaches to accelerated testing.
3. Figure 3.3 The path from traditional ALT with separate (or some) simulation input influences to ART/ADT with simulation for the full field situation (full field input influences plus safety plus human factors).
4. Figure 3.4 Reasons why the currently used approaches to accelerated stress testing often lead to unsuccessful prediction of reliability and durability.
5. Figure 3.5 Ratio of different areas of testing.
6. Figure 3.6 Progress of the different areas of activity (over the last 50–60 years).
7. Figure 3.7 The path from field input influences to failures.
8. Figure 3.8 Factors in the vibration of a mobile test subject in the field.
9. Figure 3.9 Principal scheme of corrosion in the field as a result of multi‐environmental and mechanical influences, and their interactions.
10. Figure 3.10 Depiction of the various input influences that must be accounted for based on actual field conditions experienced by the product.
11. Figure 3.11 Scheme of the study of temperature as an example of input influence on the test subject.
12. Figure 3.12 The full hierarchy of the complete product and its components as a test subject.
13. Figure 3.13 The two basic components of ART/ADT.
14. Figure 3.14 Basic components of accelerated laboratory testing as a component of ART/ADT.
15. Figure 3.15 Periodic field testing as the second major component of ART/ADT.
16. Figure 3.16 Demonstration of the influence of management and operator's reliability on the product/technology reliability [2].
17. Figure 3.17 Schematic trends in development of physical simulation of the real‐world conditions and ART/ADT.
18. Figure 3.18 Some reasons for low engineering culture.
19. Figure 3.19 Interconnected group of real‐world input influences on test subject.
20. Figure 3.20 Multi‐environmental group of input influences.
21. Figure 3.21 Example of content of interacted components of mechanical group of input influences.
Chapter 04
1. Figure 4.1 Normalized correlation ρ(τ) and power spectrum S(ω) of car trailer's frame tension data during ART and field testing (test result from one sensor).
2. Figure 4.2 Dr. Lev Klyatis, chairman of State Enterprise Testmash and full Professor Moscow University of Agricultural Engineers, in the test center, where implemented his ideas for ART development of farm machinery (1990).
3. Figure 4.3 Six‐axis vibration test equipment (Testmash, Russia), as a component of ART/ADT. Implemented in Zelenograd Electronic Center, Moscow State (Russia) (1991).
4. Figure 4.4 Change in the engine complaints for 3 years after implementation of new approach to ART and reliability prediction [1].
5. Figure 4.5 Increased volume of sales of instruments after the implementation of the new approaches, described in Chapters and [1].
6. Figure 4.6 Dr. Yakhya Abdulgalimov (Testmash) during implementation component of ART/ADT in industrial company Selmash (Bobruysk, Belorussia).
7. Figure 4.7 Final real results of successful prediction of product reliability.
8. Figure 4.8 Plan of test chamber (Testmash design) for completed truck. Kamaz Inc. (Russia). Engineering Center, Block No. 3.
9. Figure 4.9 The letter from ASAE T‐14 Committee that Lev Klyatis should be listed as the coordinator of the project “Rewriting the Standard EP 456 Test and Reliability Guidelines.”
10. Figure 4.10 The first page of the third draft of the standard EP 456 “Test and Reliability Guidelines.”
11. Figure 4.11 The ballot for the ASAE standard EP 456 (Lev Klyatis, project leader).
12. Figure 4.12 Lev Klyatis (second from left) with group of experts from SAE International, G‐11 Division in NASA Langley Research Center, NASA.
13. Figure 4.13 SAE G‐11 Division members in standardization of reliability and maintainability in aerospace, during a meeting in Washington, DC. Lev Klyatis is fourth from the left.
14. 4.14a General components of reliability testing technology. SAE International Reliability Testing Standard JA1009/1.
15. 4.14b Scheme of input influences and output variables of the actual product.
16. 4.14c Types of physics‐of‐degradation mechanisms and their parameters.
17. 4.14d Scheme of ART/ADT.
18. 4.14e Scheme of special field testing.
19. 4.14f The factors that influence the product's reliability, safety, and quality through operator's and management reliability and quality.
20. Figure 4.15Figure 4.15 Meeting TC‐56. Lev Klyatis is second (right) from chair.
21. Figure 4.16 The letter from General Secretary of United States National Committee for IEC about accreditation Lev Klyatis as US Representative for IEC.
22. Figure 4.17 Lev Klyatis expert of the USA Technical Advisory Group for the IEC in Sydney (Australia) during the meeting.
23. Figure 4.18 Dr. Lev Klyatis receiving an award from China (Beijing) during the IEC Congress.
24. Figure 4.19 These documents validate Lev Klyatis as an Expert of ISO/IEC Joint Study Group in Safety Aspects of Risk Assessment.
25. Figure 4.20 Documents demonstrating Lev Klyatis as an Expert of ISO/IEC Joint Study Group in Safety Aspects of Risk Assessment.
26. Figure 4.21 Dr. Lev Klyatis during his lecture for professionals in reliability testing and prediction (Latvia, 1974).
27. Figure 4.22 Cover page and first page of Chapter 6 from Dr. Lev Klyatis's paper for the United Nations.
28. Figure 4.23 First page of published interview with Dr. Lev Klyatis, Chairman Testmash.
29. Figure 4.24 First job for Professor Klyatis in the USA: fish delivery.
30. Figure 4.25 Published review in the journal Total Quality Management and Business Excellence, Taylor & Francis Group, Volume 17, Number 7, September 2006, UK.
31. Figure 4.26 Front cover of the book [1].
32. Figure 4.27 The first day's program of the DoD, Department of Transportation, and industry workshop/symposium.
33. Figure 4.28 Lev Klyatis, chairman of technical session IDM300 Trends in Development Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology, SAE 2014 World Congress, introducing a speaker from Jatko Ltd (Japan).
34. Figure 4.29 The system of drive‐in test chamber (Advanced Center of Excellent, University of Toronto, Canada).
35. Figure 4.30 E‐mail response from ACE (Canada) to Lev Klyatis's invitation for presentation of an ACE solution at the SAE World Congress.
36. Figure 4.31 Front cover of the book published by SAE International.
37. Figure 4.32 Lev Klyatis, presenter at the RAMS. Paul Parker is a chair of the technical session.
38. Figure 4.33 Lev Klyatis, panel presenter at the IEEE Workshop on Accelerated Stress Testing, Pasadena, CA, 1998.
39. Figure 4.34 The title page of the visuals during the presentation at the IEEE ASTR Workshop, 2009.
40. Figure 4.35 One of the visuals from the presentation in Figure 4.34.
41. Figure 4.36 Elmer Sperry Award ceremony during SAE 2012 World Congress (Detroit). From left: SAE International President, Elmer Sperry Board of Award Chairman Richard Miles, professor Princeton University, Dr. Lev Klyatis, this award sponsor, award recipients Dr. H. Hecht and Dr. Zigmund Bluvband.
42. Figure 4.37 Group of recipients and sponsors of Elmer Sperry award for Apollo–Soyuz project during NASA Award Ceremony (Washington, DC). From left: Glynn Lunney, chair of Apollo project; Richard Miles, co‐sponsor of award, professor Princeton University, Elmer Sperry Board of award member; General Thomas Stafford, chair of Apollo team; Lev Klyatis, co‐sponsor of award, Elmer Sperry Board of award member.
43. Figure 4.38 Lev Klyatis in the National Air and Space Museum in Washington, DC, in front of the joined Apollo–Soyuz spacecraft (left is Apollo, right is Soyuz).
44. Figure 4.39 Meeting announcement for Dr. Klyatis presentation for engineers and managers of two societies in New York: SAE International Metropolitan section and NAFA's New York intercounty chapter.
45. Figure 4.40 SAE 2017 World Congress (WCX17), April 4, Detroit. Lev Klyatis (IDM300 technical session Chairman) hands Certificate In Recognition for Speaker Obuli Karthikeyan (Deputy Manager Component Test Lab, Ashok Leyland, India).
46. Figure 4.41 Book review, published in The Journal of RMS (Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability) in Systems Engineering, DoD, Winter 2007/2008.
Chapter 05
1. Figure 5.1 Typical airport snow and ice control equipment.
2. Figure 5.2 Emergency generator rooftop installation.
3. Figure 5.3 Aircraft fueling cart (tow type).
4. Figure 5.4 Typical airport runway deicer vehicle.
5. Figure 5.5 Elevating platform truck.
6. Figure 5.6 Emergency fire pump.
7. Figure 5.7 Author overseeing SAE ARP 5539 snow blower performance testing [3].
8. Figure 5.8 National Fire Protection Association 414 ARFF tilt table testing [1].
9. Figure 5.9 Bus lost due to fire.
10. Figure 5.10 Diesel injector line hole caused by chafing.
11. Figure 5.11 Wiring harnesses rerouted to clear injector line.
12. Figure 5.12 This author witnessing prototype wrecker turn around functional testing.
13. Figure 5.13 This author supervising snow blower in‐cab sound level acceptance testing.
Chapter 06
1. Figure 6.1 Introduction.
2. Figure 6.2 Current situation with product reliability.
3. Figure 6.3 Brigadier General Carl Schenk described.*
4. Figure 6.4 There are many other examples with recalls.
5. Figure 6.5 Highest recalls during last year.*
6. Figure 6.6 Not only recalls, but.
7. Figure 6.7 One from final result of inaccurate prediction is.
8. Figure 6.8 It is real fact that.
9. Figure 6.9 Ways for finding the causes for complaints and recalls.
10. Figure 6.10 Example: results of saving expenses for testing during design and manufacturing.
11. Figure 6.11 Statistical criteria for comparison the reliability in results of accelerated reliability testing (ART) and field testing.
12. Figure 6.12 Statistical criteria … (continuation).
13. Figure 6.13 Comparison parameter's function with predetermined accuracy and confidence area.
14. Figure 6.14 Axiom of stress testing.
15. Figure 6.15
16. Figure 6.16
17. Figure 6.17
18. Figure 6.18
19. Figure 6.19
20. Figure 6.20
21. Figure 6.21
22. Figure 6.22
23. Figure 6.23
24. Figure 6.24
25. Figure 6.25
26. Figure 6.26
27. Figure 6.27
28. Figure 6.28
29. Figure 6.29 Four basic steps for successful reliability prediction.
30. Figure 6.30 Recalls of automobiles from 1990 to 2004 (millions) in the American market.
31. Figure 6.31 Examples of separate types of practical simulation and stress testing during design and manufacturing. This is low effective way.
32. Figure 6.32 Basic reasons why accelerated stress testing cannot help to accurately predict reliability and durability.
33. Figure 6.33 Basic components of ART/ADT.
34. Figure 6.34 Example of periodic field testing.
35. Figure 6.35 Example of interacted (simultaneous combination) of the real‐world input influences on the product.
36. Figure 6.36 The way from actual field input influences to failures (or degradation only).
37. Figure 6.37 Example: The types and parameters of the degradation mechanisms.
38. Figure 6.38 The way to reliability/durability testing.
39. Figure 6.39 Contents of ART/ADT technology.
40. Figure 6.40 Scheme of study the temperature as an example of accurate simulation input influences.
41. Figure 6.41 Accelerated destruction of paint protection in test chamber (two types of paint).
42. Figure 6.42 Dependence of steel corrosion values on the number of wettings in test chamber.
43. Figure 6.43 Vibration in test certification process in aircraft. The 190 Aircraft and vibration equipment.
44. Figure 6.44 The system (test subject) as complex of interconnected components (units and details).
45. Figure 6.45 Different types of mechanical testing.
46. Figure 6.46 Technology vibration of mobile product in the field.
47. Figure 6.47 Stages of basic vibration testing equipment development.
48. Figure 6.48 Climate test chamber with four‐wheel‐drive dynamometer with sunlight simulation (Weiss Technik).
49. Figure 6.49 Cold‐head climate test chamber with road simulator and sunlight simulator (Weiss Technik).
50. Figure 6.50 Combined testing system: vibration, climate, and corrosion (Weiss Technik).
51. Figure 6.51 Combined test chamber for electronic devices. Simulates vibration, temperature, input voltage, and humidity.
52. Figure 6.52 Bus climatic wind tunnel.
53. Figure 6.53 Bus climatic wind tunnel: specifications.
54. Figure 6.54Figure Normalized correlation and power spectrum of frame tension data for the car's trailer in different field conditions and in the chamber.
55. Figure 6.55 Deformation of metallic sample during the time in the field and during ART/ADT.
56. Figure 6.56 Effect of poor reliability on profit.
57. Figure 6.57 Scheme of complex analysis of factors that influence product reliability/quality.
Chapter 04
1. Figure 1 Total number of automotive recalls in the USA in 1980–2013 [11] (vertical line is percent, if the number of recalls is equivalent 100% in 1980, in 2010 number of recalls in percentage was approximately 500%).

Copyright

This edition first published 2018

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

The right of Lev M. Klyatis and Edward L. Anderson to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted in accordance with law.

Registered Office

John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA

Editorial Office

111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA

For details of our global editorial offices, customer services, and more information about Wiley products visit us at www.wiley.com.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats and by print–on–demand. Some content that appears in standard print versions of this book may not be available in other formats.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty

The publisher and the authors make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifically disclaim all warranties; including without limitation any implied warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. In view of on–going research, equipment modifications, changes in governmental regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to the use of experimental reagents, equipment, and devices, the reader is urged to review and evaluate the information provided in the package insert or instructions for each chemical, piece of equipment, reagent, or device for, among other things, any changes in the instructions or indication of usage and for added warnings and precautions. The fact that an organization or website is referred to in this work as a citation and/or potential source of further information does not mean that the author or the publisher endorses the information the organization or website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. No warranty may be created or extended by any promotional statements for this work. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any damages arising here from.

Library of Congress Cataloging–in–Publication Data

Names: Klyatis, Lev M., author. | Anderson, Edward L., 1945– editor.

Title: Reliability prediction and testing textbook / by Lev M. Klyatis ;

Edward L. Anderson, language editor.

Description: Hoboken, NJ, USA : Wiley, 2018. | Includes bibliographical

references and index. |

Identifiers: LCCN 2017054872 (print) | LCCN 2017059378 (ebook) | ISBN

9781119411925 (pdf) | ISBN 9781119411932 (epub) | ISBN 9781119411888

(cloth)

Subjects: LCSH: Accelerated life testing.

Classification: LCC TA169.3 (ebook) | LCC TA169.3 .K5964 2018 (print) | DDC

620/.00452–dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017054872

Cover Design: Wiley